Environmental case-studies in Central Asia.

In the 1950s, the Aral Sea used to be a third-largest lake on Earth located between modern day Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, and covering an area of 68,000 square kilometers, which is equivalent to the size of Ireland (notably, it uses “Sea” as part of its name due to its enormous size, even though scientifically it is a lake). However, during the second half of 20th century, Soviet grand irrigation projects diverted most of the river inflow away from the lake, causing it to progressively evaporate and shrink to merely 10% of its original size by 2007, resulting in 4 separated small lake segments that are a small remnant of the original lake. This event has caused, as former United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon remarked in 2011, “one of the planet’s worst environmental disasters” (“Aral Sea,” 2024). 

What precipitated this event was Soviet government’s spontaneous decision to turn Fergana Valley (located in modern-day Uzbekistan) into the world’s biggest cotton-producing region. Similarly to Semipalatinsk nuclear test site, the Soviet government did not pay due diligence researching the local habitat and potential consequences of such a grandiose plan, while local population was also not consulted properly and had no choice but to follow the directive from the central government. To accomplish this project, Syr Darya and Amu Darya rivers, which used to be the primary sources of water for the Aral Sea, were diverted away from it and into Fergana Valley to provide irrigation for growing of cotton. The construction of canals began in the 1930s and continued well into 1960s, by which time between 20 and 60 cubic kilometers of water per year were successfully being diverted from the lake (“Aral Sea,” 2024). From that period, the lake’s water level started to decrease by around 20 centimeters every year (“Aral Sea,” 2024). In the 1980s, the water level loss had skyrocketed to as much as 80 centimeters per year (“Aral Sea,” 2024). Notably, many of the canals were not properly water-proofed, which led to even further waste of water, as much as 75% in one of the canals (“Aral Sea,” 2024). 

Meanwhile, the central government, witnessing the progressive destruction of Aral Sea, did not deem it necessary to reevaluate the project or readjust plans. As early as 1964, Aleksandr Asarin, a researcher at the Hydroproject Institute, said that with the current state of affairs the fate of the lake is doomed (“Aral Sea,” 2024). Some other high-ranking Soviet officials went as far as to claim that the Aral Sea was “nature’s error”, and that its evaporation was already “inevitable” (“Aral Sea,” 2024). Curiously, Asarin also commented that the plan was “approved by the council of ministers and the Politburo”, and as a result “nobody on a lower level would dare to say a word contradicting those plans, even if it was the fate of the Aral Sea” (“Aral Sea,” 2024). Not only public comments of this nature were rare at the time, but hearing this from a high-ranking Soviet researcher is truly remarkable, which provides the most direct evidence of the top government’s poor decision making and short-sightedness.

The environmental and ecological implications of this event are enormous. The entire ecosystems that used to exist on the original territory of the lake were annihilated, and the evaporated area of the lake has turned into desert plains covered with toxic salt and other chemicals. The creation of a large desert on the former lake’s territory has resulted in wind-borne toxic dust storms that spread far and wide. Everything within the range of hundreds of kilometers, including people, livestock, fresh water, and crops, started to absorb toxic dust and chemicals, leading to water shortages, food contamination, and an elevated rate of respiratory diseases and cancer among the population. Dust storms have reached as far as Fergana Valley itself and the Tian Shan mountain peaks where Syr Darya and Amu Darya rivers originate, contaminating the said cotton crops grown from diverted rivers. The disappearance of Aral Sea also cost the Soviet Union one-sixth of its entire fish catch capacity. Even though the remnants of the lake still stay, high salinity levels made it impossible for majority of fish species to survive. To top it off, the lake used to moderate local climate, retaining heat in winter and acting as a natural coolant in summer. Now, a tiny version of original self, it was no longer able to exert control over climate, which led to altered temperature patterns in large parts of Uzbekistan, as well as South and South-East Kazakhstan, making winters colder and summers hotter, and overall climate more dry and harsh. It is estimated that at least 4.4 million people have been directly affected by this event, having experienced health issues or financial loss.

This case study demonstrates how human short-sightedness in a bid to pursue grandiose projects without proper planning or extensive prior research can lead to enormous consequences that would cost decades and billions of dollars to reverse, while not bringing about the promised benefits. This case study gives anecdotical evidence on how disregarding environment eventually blows back in a way that offsets the benefits of doing the project in the first place. It is also an example of how substantial the human capacity to alter the environment around us has become, and that if 60 years ago it was possible to remove the biggest lake from the Earth’s surface, it is hard and scary to image what humanity will be capable of in the next 60 years. A number of parallels can be drawn from this case study to modern issues such as climate change, whereby the consequences of human activity are already evident as the climate has been getting more and more extreme, and yet, here too, people claim that the climate was bound to change even without humans. Aral Sea is a great disaster that was preventable and unnecessary, but it is a drop in the bucket compared to what some modern issues can do to the entire planet. If the parallels are to hold, the cost of inaction on climate will be in terms of trillions of dollars and billions of people affected.